The first sentence of our 2019 Mid-Year Outlook read “Congratulations, you just made it through another bear market! We think the cyclical bear is heading back to his cave and that the secular bull will soon resume its charge.”  With the benefit of hindsight, our call appears to have been early and in this business early and wrong can be used interchangeably.  It’s okay to be wrong but its not okay to stay wrong.  Failure to change one’s outlook as the facts change is usually hazardous to one’s wealth.  Therefore, our current market outlook...

If your 401(k) feels flat there's a reason.  A quick glance at the chart below shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below its January 2018 highs.  That's right - US equities as an asset class have made virtually no progress for over a year and a half.

And the picture is even worse if your are globally (properly) diversified!!  The MSCI All Country World Index which includes US and Global Equities is well below the January of 2018 mark.

But...we think the secular bull market that started after the Great Recession is st...

Congratulations, you just made it through another bear market! We think the cyclical bear is heading back to his cave and that the secular bull will soon resume its charge.  We have written many times that we believe that a secular bull market began in 2011 which was the valuation low of the previous secular bear market while the price low occurred in 2009. Having said that we have appropriate risk management strategies in place to increase our clients’ odds for success in the event that we are wrong.

In the short run, two emotions always ru...

The reason for the complacency about the national debt can it part be attributed to an Australian economist named Bill Mitchell. In 1990, Mitchell coined the term Modern Monetary Theory or MMT1. MMT as an idea is starting to make a resurgence in economic circles. Once you understand what it means, hopefully you will think this theory is as ill-concevied as we think it is.

This post is a synopsis of our 'fearless outlook' for the US Equity Markets in 2019.

I’ve been at the business of investing money for clients and myself for 27 years - almost to the day.  I didn’t know it then but after my first five years as a stock broker (now I own my own asset management shop) I really didn’t know as much as I thought I did about the capital markets and after ten years in the business I figured out that I was still just a neophyte.  Ten years into my career the tech wreck that started in March of 2000 was well underway.  I can make a case that the bear was actually born in April of 1998 but that’s a sto...

After sliding about 13% during calendar year 2017, the US Dollar seems to have broken its downtrend and it appears to want to move higher.  Trade wars and tariffs seem to be among the top suspects named for the recent dollar strength.  But whatever the cause, a firm dollar could affect various asset classes both positively and negatively.  If the current trend continues we would expect the relative winners to be US Small Cap Equities and other US Stocks that derive the majority of their revenues domestically while the relativ...

When I first started playing and working on the Street of Dreams in 1991, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading around 3000.  On January 26th of this year the Blue Chip Index peaked at 26,616.71 before dropping 3256.42 points to hit an intraday low of 23,360.29 on February 9th.  Speaking strictly in terms of points, the Dow had dropped in about 10 days by more than its total value in points used to calculate its value when I started my journey down Wall Street.  The reason I bring this up is because as the markets march forward, the...

Value Line (Geometric) Average. The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change.

-Investopedia

I started my career in the investment business in 1991.  Back then there were a lot of great regional investment firms with still familiar names.  The one I worked for was A.G. Ed...

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world.  But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get - rich - quick adventurer.  They will die poor.”

- Jesse Livermore

The first quarter of 2018 started out much like most of 2017.  That is until January turned into February.  With the turn of the calendar, it seemed as though stocks fell off the side of a mountain.  But  did they?  The total return for the S&P 500 was only a negative 0.76%.  Furthermore...

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