2017 Outlook - Predictably Unpredictable

​Chart 1 Anybody who has been in the investment business long enough knows the futility of forecasting financial events – especially when looking way out into the future. For instance, at this time last year who would have thought that Donald Trump would be our current president-elect, that the UK would have voted for the Brexit and that the price of crude oil would go from the low 30’s into the 50’s. Back when I used to be a stock broker, I remember reading a research report each year published by the famous quantitative analyst, Ed Keon, called “The Fearless Forecast”. The title was of course intended to be sarcastic. But just because forecasting is difficult doesn’t mean that it should


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