The first sentence of our 2019 Mid-Year Outlook read “Congratulations, you just made it through another bear market! We think the cyclical bear is heading back to his cave and that the secular bull will soon resume its charge.”  With the benefit of hindsight, our call appears to have been early and in this business early and wrong can be used interchangeably.  It’s okay to be wrong but its not okay to stay wrong.  Failure to change one’s outlook as the facts change is usually hazardous to one’s wealth.  Therefore, our current market outlook...

If your 401(k) feels flat there's a reason.  A quick glance at the chart below shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below its January 2018 highs.  That's right - US equities as an asset class have made virtually no progress for over a year and a half.

And the picture is even worse if your are globally (properly) diversified!!  The MSCI All Country World Index which includes US and Global Equities is well below the January of 2018 mark.

But...we think the secular bull market that started after the Great Recession is st...

Congratulations, you just made it through another bear market! We think the cyclical bear is heading back to his cave and that the secular bull will soon resume its charge.  We have written many times that we believe that a secular bull market began in 2011 which was the valuation low of the previous secular bear market while the price low occurred in 2009. Having said that we have appropriate risk management strategies in place to increase our clients’ odds for success in the event that we are wrong.

In the short run, two emotions always ru...

This post is a synopsis of our 'fearless outlook' for the US Equity Markets in 2019.

I’ve been at the business of investing money for clients and myself for 27 years - almost to the day.  I didn’t know it then but after my first five years as a stock broker (now I own my own asset management shop) I really didn’t know as much as I thought I did about the capital markets and after ten years in the business I figured out that I was still just a neophyte.  Ten years into my career the tech wreck that started in March of 2000 was well underway.  I can make a case that the bear was actually born in April of 1998 but that’s a sto...

When I first started playing and working on the Street of Dreams in 1991, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was trading around 3000.  On January 26th of this year the Blue Chip Index peaked at 26,616.71 before dropping 3256.42 points to hit an intraday low of 23,360.29 on February 9th.  Speaking strictly in terms of points, the Dow had dropped in about 10 days by more than its total value in points used to calculate its value when I started my journey down Wall Street.  The reason I bring this up is because as the markets march forward, the...

Value Line (Geometric) Average. The Value Line Geometric Composite Index is the original index released, and launched on June 30, 1961. It is an equally weighted index using a geometric average. Because it is based on a geometric average the daily change is closest to the median stock price change.

-Investopedia

I started my career in the investment business in 1991.  Back then there were a lot of great regional investment firms with still familiar names.  The one I worked for was A.G. Ed...

In February of 2018 the Chinese Zodiac Calendar flips to the Year of the Dog, specifically the Year of the Brown Earth Dog.  According to  www.georgetangchineseastrology.com, “The 2018 year of the Brown Earth Dog is destined to be a good, upbeat and very positive year for Horse people.”  This is especially good news for me because I am a Horse person.  Having said that I don’t actually believe that anybody can consistently and accurately predict the future—even when armed with the Chinese Zodiac Calendar.  I do believe though, that discipli...

According to Bespoke Institutional, stocks broke a 58 day streak of trading without a market move of over plus or minus 1% on August 10th.  Since then stock market volatility has picked up some but not dramatically.  Volatility can be a good thing for alert investors looking for attractive entry points to buy stocks on sale.  Below is a market cap weighted chart of Facebook, Amazon.com, Netflix and Google, also known as the FANGs.  The chart shows that while the group is up dramatically, price action stalled in the early summer and has pull...

For the last week or so the conflict of words between North Korea and the United States seems to have changed from a rapid boil to a slow simmer, giving equities a boost during the first half of the week. Stocks did experience substantial weakness on Thursday followed by mild attempt at a rally on Friday. But military games on the Korean Peninsula are scheduled to begin on August 21st which is sure to turn the heat back up.  Having said that, I wanted to take a look at past U.S. stock market reactions to previous military conflicts.

In the c...

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