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The Year of the Rat

James Tharin, CFA

Jan 9, 2020
2 min

The Year of the Rat

On January 25th of 2020, the Chinese Zodiac Calendar flips to the year of the Rat, specifically Year of the Metal (Gold) Rat. I’m not sure why they call it the Year of the Rat, but from everything I have read on the internet, the Year of the Rat is supposed to be good for making money for those who are well prepared and work hard. Since this is the Year of the Metal Rat, let’s start by looking at what commodity prices are doing and the possible ramifications for investors.

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The US Dollar - Strong and Getting Stronger

James Tharin, CFA

Aug 10, 2018
1 min

The US Dollar - Strong and Getting Stronger

After sliding about 13% during calendar year 2017, the US Dollar seems to have broken its downtrend and it appears to want to move higher. Trade wars and tariffs seem to be among the top suspects named for the recent dollar strength. But whatever the cause, a firm dollar could affect various asset classes both positively and negatively. If the current trend continues we would expect the relative winners to be US Small Cap Equities and other US Stocks that derive the majori

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The Year of the Dog

James Tharin, CFA

Jan 2, 2018
3 min

The Year of the Dog

In February of 2018 the Chinese Zodiac Calendar flips to the Year of the Dog, specifically the Year of the Brown Earth Dog. According to www.georgetangchineseastrology.com, “The 2018 year of the Brown Earth Dog is destined to be a good, upbeat and very positive year for Horse people.” This is especially good news for me because I am a Horse person. Having said that I don’t actually believe that anybody can consistently and accurately predict the future—even when armed wit

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Stocks and Bombs

James Tharin, CFA

Aug 18, 2017
2 min

Stocks and Bombs

For the last week or so the conflict of words between North Korea and the United States seems to have changed from a rapid boil to a slow simmer, giving equities a boost during the first half of the week. Stocks did experience substantial weakness on Thursday followed by mild attempt at a rally on Friday. But military games on the Korean Peninsula are scheduled to begin on August 21st which is sure to turn the heat back up. Having said that, I wanted to take a look at past U

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Is the Stock Market Really Overvalued?

James Tharin, CFA

Feb 24, 2017
4 min

Is the Stock Market Really Overvalued?

With the strong bull run in stock prices since November, we have been reading more from the perma-bear community about how overvalued the stock market is. With optimism running high among investors we think that a discussion of stock market valuations is timely. But before we get into the meat of the discussion, please understand that valuations are at best a blunt instrument for timing the market. Undervalued assets can become even more undervalued and overvalued assets c

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2017 Outlook - Predictably Unpredictable

James Tharin, CFA

Dec 28, 2016
6 min

2017 Outlook - Predictably Unpredictable

Chart 1 Anybody who has been in the investment business long enough knows the futility of forecasting financial events – especially when looking way out into the future. For instance, at this time last year who would have thought that Donald Trump would be our current president-elect, that the UK would have voted for the Brexit and that the price of crude oil would go from the low 30’s into the 50’s. Back when I used to be a stock broker, I remember reading a research repo

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Building a Better Bond Portfolio

James Tharin, CFA

Oct 18, 2016
3 min

Building a Better Bond Portfolio

A well constructed bond portfolio can stand-alone as a total portfolio or as part of a broader asset allocation strategy. There are many reasons that an investor might choose to allocate some or all of their investment capital to fixed income securities. Investors usually invest in bonds to either provide a predictable stream of income, fund a known liability at a known future time or as part of an overall asset allocation strategy that is designed take the volatility out of

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The Valuation Bears Have it Wrong

James Tharin, CFA

Sep 19, 2016
2 min

The Valuation Bears Have it Wrong

In today’s low return environment, investors are scrambling to find higher yielding investments in order to fund future or a current liabilities like retirement, the purchase of a second home, or a college education. A quick glance at the chart above should point out the obvious to anyone who doesn’t already know it yet. Interest rates are low by historical standards. To make matters worse, many investors are still licking their wounds from the tech wreck and the bursting

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What's in Style on Wall Street

James Tharin, CFA

May 4, 2016
3 min

What's in Style on Wall Street

Whether your game is growth or value, momentum, low volatility or indexing, strategies with strong academic underpinnings generally work out if they are implemented properly and if they are given enough time. The problem though is that human beings aren’t generally wired with the right personality traits required to make money in stocks. We tend to become impatient and chase yesterday’s hot strategy just at the peak or bail out on a short term under performer right before t

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Better than Bonds

James Tharin, CFA

Mar 21, 2016
2 min

Better than Bonds

Some years back I used to enjoy reading a research report that was published periodically by Credit Suisse called “Better than Bonds”. The concept of the report was fairly straight forward as I remember it. At the time, dividend yields on many high quality stocks were the same as or greater than the yields on the same bonds. Therefore, if an investor was willing to buy a portfolio of the corporate debt of these financially sound companies, why not just buy the same stocks

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First Under Statement of 2016 - January was Rough!

James Tharin, CFA

Feb 4, 2016
2 min

First Under Statement of 2016 - January was Rough!

Current Outlook If 2015 was flat and boring for investors, then 2016 has ushered in an unwelcome change to volatility and losses. We thought it might be helpful if our friends and clients could see the stock market through our eyes. While predicting the future is impossible, it is possible to calculate the preponderance of the evidence in order to stack the odds of success in our favor. Our primary interest is in the dominant trend of the stock market with a secondary inte

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A Primer on Fixed Income Investing

James Tharin, CFA

Jul 16, 2015
1 min

A Primer on Fixed Income Investing

Since a bond is by definition a loan to an entity such as a government (U.S., agency or foreign), a corporation or a municipality, investors should want to know the risk of being paid back their principal investment and their interest payments in a timely manner before investing. The risk of not being paid back is known as credit risk. There are many factors that should be analyzed to determine credit risk like leverage and cash flow metrics as well whether the specific bon

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How to Invest if You Think Stocks are Expensive & Interest Rates are Low

James B. Tharin, CFA

Jun 16, 2015
4 min

How to Invest if You Think Stocks are Expensive & Interest Rates are Low

It’s taken me awhile to get here but I do believe that the Great Recession caused by the housing crisis of 2007 - 2009 is behind us and a new Secular Bull Market in U.S. and Global Equities is well under way. However, not everybody shares this point of view. After all, the S&P 500 has increased in price by over 200% since the March 2009 lows with only one correction that came close to the 20% drop that most people use to define a bear market. And that event was way back in

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Rising Dividends – A Strategy for Income or Growth

James B. Tharin, CFA

Jun 9, 2015
3 min

Rising Dividends – A Strategy for Income or Growth

If you think dividends are boring, think again. According to Stocks for the Long Run, by Jeremy Siegel, about two thirds of the real (inflation-adjusted) returns from U.S. Stocks from 1871 to 1996 were attributable to dividends, and about one third of the (real) gains were attributable to capital appreciation. Please reread that last sentence. Dividends have historically provided more profit to investors than capital gains. Now don’t get me wrong, I want my stocks to go u

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Seven Steps to a More Secure Retirement

James Tharin, CFA

Feb 11, 2015
3 min

Seven Steps to a More Secure Retirement

by James B. Tharin, CFA At Emerald Asset Management, we believe the foundation to building a more secure financial future begins with a plan. But how does one get started? And how should you implement the plan? Many people find that the help of an experienced, credentialed advisor makes the experience easier to accomplish than they could do on their own. Many people also find that having a professional guide them through the process can give them the added confidence and

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