The US Dollar - Strong and Getting Stronger
After sliding about 13% during calendar year 2017, the US Dollar seems to have broken its downtrend and it appears to want to move higher. Trade wars and tariffs seem to be among the top suspects named for the recent dollar strength. But whatever the cause, a firm dollar could affect various asset classes both positively and negatively. If the current trend continues we would expect the relative winners to be US Small Cap Equities and other US Stocks that derive the majority of their revenues domestically while the relative losers would be US Large Cap Equities and Non-US Developed and Emerging Market Stocks. We would also expect commodities (except oil) to face a head wind and the US 10 year treasury to face a tailwind keeping interest rates in check. Having said that, its still a bull market and we we do expect to see the S&P 500 make new all-time highs this year.