The US Dollar - Strong and Getting Stronger

Written By James Tharin, CFA – President & Chief Investment Officer

After sliding about 13% during calendar year 2017, the US Dollar seems to have broken its downtrend and it appears to want to move higher. Trade wars and tariffs seem to be among the top suspects named for the recent dollar strength. But whatever the cause, a firm dollar could affect various asset classes both positively and negatively. If the current trend continues we would expect the relative winners to be US Small Cap Equities and other US Stocks that derive the majority of their revenues domestically while the relative losers would be US Large Cap Equities and Non-US Developed and Emerging Market Stocks. We would also expect commodities (except oil) to face a head wind and the US 10 year treasury to face a tailwind keeping interest rates in check. Having said that, its still a bull market and we we do expect to see the S&P 500 make new all-time highs this year.

James Tharin, CFA – President & Chief Investment Officer

James brings more than 30 years of investment management experience and broad knowledge across both fundamental and technical analysis. His specialty is building customized portfolios of individual stocks and bonds, thoughtfully tailored to each client’s goals and risk tolerance.

Before founding Emerald, James spent 22 years serving clients at A.G. Edwards and Wells Fargo Advisors. A proud Rocky Mount native, he’s deeply involved in the community and has held leadership roles with the CFA Society North Carolina, as well as several local nonprofits and civic boards.

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